The threat facing
Tarpy Flats
The threat facing Tarpy Flats
The threat
There are currently 72 homes in Monterra and 42 in Oak Tree Views. The proposed housing development would result in a sevenfold increase in residents relying on a single vulnerable chokepoint: the intersection of Olmsted Road and Highway 68. In recent years, California has seen how limited evacuation routes (such as the Camp Fire in Paradise or the Pacific Palisades fires in LA) can complicate emergency response and put people at risk during fast-moving wildfires (see KLD Wildfire Evacuation Plan tab).
David Hillman (DBHillman Consulting and Investigations) was hired to evaluate the wildfire risk at Tarpy Flats. Mr. Hillman is a retired Deputy Director of CalFire and is responsible for authoring many of CalFire’s wildfire mitigations, recommendations and CalFire regulations.
The document is titled Wildfire Threat Analysis and can be found here. Mr. Hillman determined that high-density housing at Tarpy Flats would raise both the chance of a fire starting and the damage if one does. The analysis shows Tarpy Flats sits in a CAL FIRE High Fire Hazard Severity Zone, next to a Very High zone. The site is described as having dense vegetation, dry seasonal conditions, and frequent winds—conditions that support fast fire spread. Adding hundreds of homes (the group cites county/city figures that together could exceed 1,300 units) would, in their reading of the report:
- Conflict with California Fire Safe Regulations that limit new development in high-hazard areas.
- Increase ignitions from everyday human activity (more people, cars, power use, landscaping).
- Strain local water systems so firefighters may not have reliable pressure during a large fire.
- Put new and existing neighborhoods (Monterra, Oak Tree Views, and others that share the Olmsted Road / Highway 68 choke point) at higher risk.
Mr. Hillman’s report can be found in its entirety here.
Paired with the KLD evacuation study, we learn that, under current density, evacuating 90% of residents is estimated at about 2 hours 10 minutes, with ~1,000 vehicles (approximately 2000 people) unable to evacuate. With the proposed housing, they say the same window could leave 5000 additional vehicles and approximately 12,000 people trapped.
Hillman concludes that that Tarpy Flats is already a high-threat landscape, that extra density would make wildfires more likely and suppression harder, and that the combination of fuels, weather, limited water, and a single main exit make large-scale housing there an unacceptable wildfire risk.
The threat
There are currently 72 homes in Monterra and 42 in Oak Tree Views. The proposed housing development would result in a sevenfold increase in residents relying on a single vulnerable chokepoint: the intersection of Olmsted Road and Highway 68. In recent years, California has seen how limited evacuation routes (such as the Camp Fire in Paradise or the Pacific Palisades fires in LA) can complicate emergency response and put people at risk during fast-moving wildfires (see KLD Wildfire Evacuation Plan tab).
David Hillman (DBHillman Consulting and Investigations) was hired to evaluate the wildfire risk at Tarpy Flats. Mr. Hillman is a retired Deputy Director of CalFire and is responsible for authoring many of CalFire’s wildfire mitigations, recommendations and CalFire regulations.
The document is titled Wildfire Threat Analysis and can be found here. Mr. Hillman determined that high-density housing at Tarpy Flats would raise both the chance of a fire starting and the damage if one does. The analysis shows Tarpy Flats sits in a CAL FIRE High Fire Hazard Severity Zone, next to a Very High zone. The site is described as having dense vegetation, dry seasonal conditions, and frequent winds—conditions that support fast fire spread. Adding hundreds of homes (the group cites county/city figures that together could exceed 1,300 units) would, in their reading of the report:
- Conflict with California Fire Safe Regulations that limit new development in high-hazard areas.
- Increase ignitions from everyday human activity (more people, cars, power use, landscaping).
- Strain local water systems so firefighters may not have reliable pressure during a large fire.
- Put new and existing neighborhoods (Monterra, Oak Tree Views, and others that share the Olmsted Road / Highway 68 choke point) at higher risk.
Mr. Hillman’s report can be found in its entirety here.
Paired with the KLD evacuation study, we learn that, under current density, evacuating 90% of residents is estimated at about 2 hours 10 minutes, with ~1,000 vehicles (approximately 2000 people) unable to evacuate. With the proposed housing, they say the same window could leave 5000 additional vehicles and approximately 12,000 people trapped.
Hillman concludes that that Tarpy Flats is already a high-threat landscape, that extra density would make wildfires more likely and suppression harder, and that the combination of fuels, weather, limited water, and a single main exit make large-scale housing there an unacceptable wildfire risk.
The threat
There are currently 72 homes in Monterra and 42 in Oak Tree Views. The proposed housing development would result in a sevenfold increase in residents relying on a single vulnerable chokepoint: the intersection of Olmsted Road and Highway 68. In recent years, California has seen how limited evacuation routes (such as the Camp Fire in Paradise or the Pacific Palisades fires in LA) can complicate emergency response and put people at risk during fast-moving wildfires (see KLD Wildfire Evacuation Plan tab).
David Hillman (DBHillman Consulting and Investigations) was hired to evaluate the wildfire risk at Tarpy Flats. Mr. Hillman is a retired Deputy Director of CalFire and is responsible for authoring many of CalFire’s wildfire mitigations, recommendations and CalFire regulations.
The document is titled Wildfire Threat Analysis and can be found here. Mr. Hillman determined that high-density housing at Tarpy Flats would raise both the chance of a fire starting and the damage if one does. The analysis shows Tarpy Flats sits in a CAL FIRE High Fire Hazard Severity Zone, next to a Very High zone. The site is described as having dense vegetation, dry seasonal conditions, and frequent winds—conditions that support fast fire spread. Adding hundreds of homes (the group cites county/city figures that together could exceed 1,300 units) would, in their reading of the report:
- Conflict with California Fire Safe Regulations that limit new development in high-hazard areas.
- Increase ignitions from everyday human activity (more people, cars, power use, landscaping).
- Strain local water systems so firefighters may not have reliable pressure during a large fire.
- Put new and existing neighborhoods (Monterra, Oak Tree Views, and others that share the Olmsted Road / Highway 68 choke point) at higher risk.
Mr. Hillman’s report can be found in its entirety here.
Paired with the KLD evacuation study, we learn that, under current density, evacuating 90% of residents is estimated at about 2 hours 10 minutes, with ~1,000 vehicles (approximately 2000 people) unable to evacuate. With the proposed housing, they say the same window could leave 5000 additional vehicles and approximately 12,000 people trapped.
Hillman concludes that that Tarpy Flats is already a high-threat landscape, that extra density would make wildfires more likely and suppression harder, and that the combination of fuels, weather, limited water, and a single main exit make large-scale housing there an unacceptable wildfire risk.
Why it matters
Increased traffic gridlock and congestion
The proposed development would add over 5,000 car trips per day to a two-lane road with limited capacity to handle the existing traffic. Highway 68 and Olmsted Road intersection next to the airport already faces heavy congestion, with long queues and stop-and-go traffic. Over five thousand more cars daily would worsen delays at this already overburdened intersection, severely hinder emergency response times, and threaten public safety.
Vehicle traffic to and from the airport passes mainly through the intersection of Highway 68 and Olmsted Road. In 2024, over 600,000 visitors came in and out of Monterey Airport, which is set to increase. The proposed development will significantly impede vehicle access to the airport. (See Resources or Click Link for KDL Associates Wildfire Evacuation Estimate)
Increased traffic gridlock and congestion
The proposed development would add over 5,000 car trips per day to a two-lane road with limited capacity to handle the existing traffic. Highway 68 and Olmsted Road intersection next to the airport already faces heavy congestion, with long queues and stop-and-go traffic. Over five thousand more cars daily would worsen delays at this already overburdened intersection, severely hinder emergency response times, and threaten public safety.
Vehicle traffic to and from the airport passes mainly through the intersection of Highway 68 and Olmsted Road. In 2024, over 600,000 visitors came in and out of Monterey Airport, which is set to increase. The proposed development will significantly impede vehicle access to the airport. (See Resources or Click Link for KDL Associates Wildfire Evacuation Estimate)
Increased fire risk
Tarpy Flats is in a state-designated high fire hazard severity zone marked by dense vegetation, dry conditions, and frequent winds. The strain on local water supplies creates a risk of inadequate water pressure for firefighting in the event of a significant fire. ((See Resources or Click Link for Hillman Wildfire Threat Analysis and KDL Associates Wildfire Evacuation Estimate)
Increased fire risk
Tarpy Flats is in a state-designated high fire hazard severity zone marked by dense vegetation, dry conditions, and frequent winds. The strain on local water supplies creates a risk of inadequate water pressure for firefighting in the event of a significant fire. ((See Resources or Click Link for Hillman Wildfire Threat Analysis and KDL Associates Wildfire Evacuation Estimate)
Serious evacuation concerns
There are currently 72 homes in Monterra and 42 in Oak Tree Views. The proposed housing development would result in a sevenfold increase in residents relying on a single vulnerable chokepoint: the intersection of Olmsted Road and Highway 68. In recent years, California has seen how limited evacuation routes can complicate emergency response and put people at risk during fast-moving wildfires.
The KLD report analyzed the time it would take to evacuate the area in the event of a wildfire. They reported that under the current housing density in the Tarpy Flats area, it will take approximately 2 hours and 10 minutes to evacuate 90% of the residents, leaving roughly 1000 cars (2000 residents) trapped. The additional housing will increase the number of vehicles and residents trying to escape. In that same 2 hours and 10 minutes time duration, over 6000 vehicles (12,000 residents) may be trapped.
Serious evacuation concerns
There are currently 72 homes in Monterra and 42 in Oak Tree Views. The proposed housing development would result in a sevenfold increase in residents relying on a single vulnerable chokepoint: the intersection of Olmsted Road and Highway 68. In recent years, California has seen how limited evacuation routes can complicate emergency response and put people at risk during fast-moving wildfires.
The KLD report analyzed the time it would take to evacuate the area in the event of a wildfire. They reported that under the current housing density in the Tarpy Flats area, it will take approximately 2 hours and 10 minutes to evacuate 90% of the residents, leaving roughly 1000 cars (2000 residents) trapped. The additional housing will increase the number of vehicles and residents trying to escape. In that same 2 hours and 10 minutes time duration, over 6000 vehicles (12,000 residents) may be trapped.
Irreversible damage to Tarpy Flats’ wildlife
Tarpy Flats is in a state-controlled, environmentally sensitive wildlife ecosystem unsuitable for high-density housing. The proposed Tarpy Flats development would permanently destroy one of Monterey County’s most scenic, ecologically rich, and culturally significant landscapes. Framed by oak woodlands, coastal views, and Jacks Peak, the area is home to various wildlife species, including deer, hawks, foxes, and native pollinators. It is also home to several federally protected plants.
Irreversible damage to wildlife
Tarpy Flats is in a state-controlled, environmentally sensitive wildlife ecosystem unsuitable for high-density housing. The proposed Tarpy Flats development would permanently destroy one of Monterey County’s most scenic, ecologically rich, and culturally significant landscapes. Framed by oak woodlands, coastal views, and Jacks Peak, the area is home to various wildlife species, including deer, hawks, foxes, and native pollinators. It is also home to several federally protected plants.